Yields
The yield curve is an indicator of the location of the future distribution of investment returns. At the heart of the EV Asset Model is a ground-breaking interest rate model that makes accurate predictions of the future range of yield curves for various economies and drives the general level of asset class returns.
Expected yields in 5 years
At each maturity point, the EV Asset Model forecasts a distribution of interest rates. Yield curves corresponding to the median expected state in 5 years are shown in the chart below.
The table below shows expectations for the 10-year nominal government bond rate in 5 years for various economies as modelled by the EV Asset Model.
UK | US | EU | JP | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 year nominal rate | 25th percentile | 0.63% | 1.92% | 0.48% | 0.37% |
median | 1.94% | 3.13% | 1.18% | 1.15% | |
mean | 2.34% | 3.27% | 1.38% | 1.34% | |
75th percentile | 3.68% | 4.47% | 2.08% | 2.12% |