The yield curve is an indicator of the location of the future distribution of investment returns. At the heart of the EV Asset Model is a ground-breaking interest rate model that makes accurate predictions of the future range of yield curves for various economies and drives the general level of asset class returns.

Expected yields in 5 years

At each maturity point, the EV Asset Model forecasts a distribution of interest rates. Yield curves corresponding to the median expected state in 5 years are shown in the chart below.


The table below shows expectations for the 10-year nominal government bond rate in 5 years for various economies as modelled by the EV Asset Model.

10 year nominal rate 25th percentile 0.63% 1.92% 0.48% 0.37%
median 1.94% 3.13% 1.18% 1.15%
mean 2.34% 3.27% 1.38% 1.34%
75th percentile 3.68% 4.47% 2.08% 2.12%